Oil Reserves and Consumption.

We at EnergySavingNow.com are following, with great interest, the debates on sources for energy production and consumption. A very important event was the two-day conference on oil depletion that began May 30, 2002, at Uppsala University in Uppsala, Sweden, with Professor Kjell Aleklett as chairman. For human kind, these kind of events will have a large impact and maybe even more than most of the spectacular events that we have seen in recent days.

The conference revealed an enormous rift within the group of experts that make more or less credible statements. The major discrepancy was if we will start to see a reduction of available oil reserves year 2010 or if we at that time already have reduced themin a significant way. The resulting disaster everybody agrees on, it is, unfortunately, the timing that gets the attention. So all the major discussions are about if I will suffer, my child will suffer or if it is my grandchildren who will suffer. Somebody will suffer painfully and we are talking about current generations, not future. We are no longer talking about unborn children. But of course, my grandchildren do not qualify as voters yet; therefore they are not interesting for the current politicians.

Renewable energy resources are slowly gaining support. However, it is pathetic that the most optimistic estimates show that the contribution from wind energy will be only 15% by 2020. We can also see similar projections for the use of other resources like solar energy, bio mass and bio diesel. The interest in renewable energy issues does grow rapidly, but implementation and practical actions are not fast enough.

On the consumption side, we can see even more horrifying samples of slow development and even political reversals. To reduce consumption is inevitable, the question is only if this will be in an orderly fashion or a very painful process as a part of major crises. If the current waste and over consumption can be addressed in an orderly fashion, it is possible to achieve positive results both bigger and faster than the improvements on the energy production side. Taken together, there is a slim chance that the worst may be avoided.

So our thoughts follow these lines:

The facts on Oil Reserves.
The current facts and proven projections for oil reserves are very compelling. Here are some of them.

• Current known oil reserves are 928 gigabarrels (gb) of oil. Estimates of the possible total of oil reserves vary, but the most credible ones end up around 2000 gb.
  
  
• The world currently consumes around 29 gb of oil every year. Projections from the US Department of Energy (DOE) and the International Energy Agency (IEA), project consumption at 43 and 42 gb respectively for the year 2020.
  
  
• Average findings of new oil resources during the last 7 years are around 10 gb per year. Nothing indicates that we will improve on this. This also give a net reduction of known oil reserves with around 100 gb the last 7 years. As far as we understand mathematics, it means that the reduction of oil reserves already started and we have to find a very large resource to compensate for this.

The result of the above is that we will have reduced the known oil reserve close to 50% by the year 2020. This will come with painful economic damages to the industrial countries with the US in first place.

If we in one go could elevate all people in the world to the same living standard and habits as USA, all known oil reserves would be finished in 5 years and the unknown reserves in another 5 years. Since oil is very much the economic driving force, it tells us something about the chances for improving living conditions. This calculation does not include that the worlds population will be more than 10 billion year 2020. 

The facts on Renewable Energy.
Fossil fuels are produced over thousands of years by slow natural processes. They result is compact materials with a very high energy content. We have used this to our benefit, on a relative short time cycle and with effective distribution systems.

Renewable energy sources are based on using the energy sources in an earlier stage and thereby shorten the generation cycle. It is therefore less compact and needs larger volumes or areas for production. Some of the methods are also dependent on finite resources of other materials. Because of the dependence on large areas and/or volumes, the implementation will take longer than the one for fossil fuels. It is a major task that should have been started yesterday, with more determination and larger resources. We must stop the procrastination!

There are undoubtedly possibilities for expanding renewable energy to a level where it would take care of the major part of our needs, if those needs are reduced to reasonable levels. But this will not happen if we do not accelerate this development by several multiples.

The dreams on Renewable Energy.
Again, many experts, with financial/political backgrounds, believe that there is a magic silver bullet hidden somewhere here also. Please tell us where.
The dreams on Oil Reserves.
Many experts, mainly with financial/political backgrounds, believe that there is a magic silver bullet hidden somewhere. It is mostly speculations about enormous hidden resources and we are of course hoping that they are right. It would however be utterly irresponsible to assume that they are right and therefore avoid taking action. But there are a lot of politicians out there, that are prepared to be utterly irresponsible, if it will help them in the next election. The philosophy is simple, if you bring a nice message, there is less risk that the messenger gets shot.

Some of those most optimistic dreamers claim that we will be able to keep up the available oil reserve until 2020 and that they will not start to shrink until after that point. We have unfortunately not found any credible scientific background for this. It is mostly arguments on the line of, "if you cannot prove that we are wrong, we could be right". This is the weakness of all future prognosticating. The damage such attitudes can do is immense and they look more as an attempt at comforting current voters.

 

The facts on Energy Saving.
Energy saving is probably the method that has the greatest potential to help the situation. It will not only ease the coming crises, it will also teach us to live wisely and with care for coming generations. If drastic steps and investments can be done, we will also see an immense improvement in pollution and health. The potential is large and it is maybe the only chance for developed countries to improve their situation and for developing countries to improve theirs. To give a few examples,

• Smaller, cleaner and more economic cars, with diesel engines that are prepared for bio fuels. The popular use of large vehicles for transportation of 1-3 persons, is not sustainable.
• Nearly 80% of hot water production could be covered by solar panels and it is one of the few things that will be paid back in less than 5 years.
• Better understanding of insulation, heating and cooling in our buildings, can give around 50-70% savings. Only control policies and equipment, can give very fast results.
• Cleaner and more efficient production will also give large savings in energy.
• Improvements in urban planning and product distribution. An issue of special importance for US.

Methods to do this are available and it will take little research to invent. What is lacking is the will to implement. 


The dream of Energy Saving.
That we will be able to produce enough energy in the future which would make it possible to waste energy in the same manner as today.

Scenarios about the future.
Todays facts are hard and in many areas proven, but the scenarios about the future can be terrifying. Here are some questions,

• US oil reserve volumes peaked in the early seventies, the European in the late nineties and the Middle East will pass in a couple of years. The majority of oil reserves are in areas of political and social instability. There are two different worlds going on a collision course at full speed. One does not want to brake and the other is out of control. One will not reduce its utilization of energy and the other will not develop without higher utilization. Will anyone give way and who?
• Will the military might of the remaining super power be used for the best of the world or for maintaining its supply of energy when it starts to hurt them?
• Will it even be possible to keep 80% of the worlds population under control and at the same time expect their willingness to deliver energy resources?
• When will actions to ease the suffering and solutions for managing energy be elevated from a hobby for the rich, to a necessity for the world?

It should not com as a surprise for the current politicians in power, that it is not only the buck the rests with them, but also the Barrel. We like to hear them say "The barrel stops here" in the future. The signs are on the wall for some time now and there are no excuses.